(FARGO, ND)– As the U.S. harvest season is in full swing, farmers in Brazil and Argentina are beginning their spring planting with many dry areas across both countries. But, should we be sounding the alarm bells on production problems?
It’s not necessarily a problem right now but it could be down the road, according to Dr. Michael Cordonnier from Soybean and Corn Advisor. “In Brazil, the soybeans are at two percent planted,” according to Dr. Cordonnier. “The state of Paranأ، in Southern Brazil, 13 percent planted, but the big state of Mato Grosso only a half of 1%. And that’s where the concern is. Central Brazil has been very hot, very dry. Their last rain was like late April. So it’s a little bit late. For the rain to get started now next week, supposed to be a lot more rain in central Brazil. I’m not too worried about the soybean planting windows.”
Dr. Cordonnier says it’s a very forgiving window for planting soybeans in central Brazil and it can be done until mid to late November if weather cooperates. The bigger issue with a delay to soybean planting could be Brazil’s second crop corn.
“So the later the soybeans go in, the later the second crop of corn goes in, and that’s the big crop of corn in Brazil,” according to Dr. Cordonnier. “That could be a problem for the second crop. Now, if the rains pick up next week like they’re forecasted, then I don’t see much of a problem in central Brazil. So, I would say Brazil’s weather is slowly improving. And the initial concern would be for the second crop of corn, more so than for soybeans.”
For Argentina, dryness concerns and continued issues with leaf hopper insects could be a challenge for their crop outlook according to Dr. Cordonnier.
“In Argentina, the corn there is 10 percent planted, no soybeans,” says Dr. Cordonnier. “And the dryness in Argentina is fairly widespread with above normal temperatures. Now, there might get a little bit of rain this week, but there also are forecast to get more rain next week. And actually, I’m a little bit more concerned about Argentina than about Brazil. And in Argentina, they plant corn in two phases. The first one is September-October, then they skip November, then they plant December and January. And they’re already scheduled to plant less corn this year because of corn leafhoppers and corn stunt disease. Now, the insect likes dry weather. So the longer it stays dry, the more chances the insect could increase its population, and that might mean farmers plant even less corn than what’s anticipated.”
He adds that if Argentine farmers don’t plant corn during the first phase, they’re probably not going to plant it during the second phase as that would be even worse for leaf hoppers. Therefore, he believes that there will be more soybeans planting this growing season in Argentina.
In terms of market direction, Dr. Cordonnier believes grain markets could stay rangebound until various world weather issues play out. “I think they will be range bound and they’ll move sideways until we get some sort of a major issue in South America,” he says. “You know, Russia, one of Russia’s areas just declared an emergency because of drought. They had some problems in Ukraine. We might have some problems in South America down the road. So I think we’ll be range bound until we get a little bit better direction out of South America, so it’s gonna be at least a couple of months.”
You can learn more online at . Also, hear the full conversation with Dr. Cordonnier on Wednesday’s episode of Agriculture of America (AOA) at around the 21:30 mark on the podcast below or anywhere you listen to your favorite podcasts: